External validation of a simple clinical tool used to predict falls in people with Parkinson disease

A different type of prediction for those with PD... one that predicts who might fall. This is really important because falls may be preventable and the sequelae of falls, namely fractures and head injuries can have profound negative effects on those with PD...

Parkinsonism Relat Disord. 2015 May 16. pii: S1353-8020(15)00210-2. doi: 10.1016/j.parkreldis.2015.05.008. [Epub ahead of print]

Duncan RP, Cavanaugh JT, Earhart GM, Ellis TD, Ford MP, Foreman KB, Leddy AL, Paul SS, Canning CG, Thackeray A, Dibble LE.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1353802015002102

BACKGROUND:

Assessment of fall risk in an individual with Parkinson disease (PD) is a critical yet often time consuming component of patient care. Recently a simple clinical prediction tool based only on fall history in the previous year, freezing of gait in the past month, and gait velocity <1.1 m/s was developed and accurately predicted future falls in a sample of individuals with PD.

METHODS:

We sought to externally validate the utility of the tool by administering it to a different cohort of 171 individuals with PD. Falls were monitored prospectively for 6 months following predictor assessment.

RESULTS:

The tool accurately discriminated future fallers from non-fallers (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.83; 95% CI 0.76-0.89), comparable to the developmental study.

CONCLUSION:

The results validated the utility of the tool for allowing clinicians to quickly and accurately identify an individual's risk of an impending fall.